Interesting how everyone
seemed to be cheering Google on when the company was first rumored to be making
a bit for those coveted airwaves, the 700-megahertz spectrum which is slated to
be auctioned Jan. 24. But now that Google is
edging ever nearer to confirming its intentions, the
grumbling is starting.
Somewhere between now and
December 3 Google will need to pay a required deposit if it wants to participate
in the auction. Even then, as a Reuters news story points out, paying the
deposit does not guarantee Google will submit a bid. Reuters sources estimate
that, after paying 4+billion to buy the spectrum, Google would then need to
invest 8-10 Billion to build a nationwide wireless network. That's assuming
Google opts to go that route, alone, as the Wall Street Journal reports that Google (probably) will. According to the WSJ:
Google
already is running a test version of an advanced wireless network at its
Mountain View, Calif., headquarters, gaining operating experience that could
come in handy if it wins the spectrum and decides to run a full-scale national
mobile carrier, according to people familiar with the matter.
The behind-the-scenes
moves illustrate just how serious the Internet giant is about trying to reshape
the wireless world. Its push could potentially expand the availability and
decrease the cost of high-speed mobile Internet access to consumers and broaden
the wireless applications they can use.
At the same time,
Google's wireless projects could take it far from its core expertise, at a big
potential cost in money and management attention. They could also antagonize
telecom carriers, some of whom have relationships with the company, and other
Google partners, who might view the wireless push as a competitive threat. It
remains possible that last-minute developments could alter Google's strategy
between now and Dec. 3..."
Some are starting to say Google won't be bidding at all. Chetan Sharma, founder of Sharma
Consulting, a firm that specializes in strategy and intellectual
property consulting in the wireless industry, says in an
interesting podcast that "Google will decline to bid on the block of
700MHz spectrum that the FCC will auction next year" and "The bidders
will likely be the conventional wireless carriers and perhaps some cable TV
companies." Sharma believes that despite all this "Google, Microsoft,
and Yahoo, shall become much more influential in the mobile space. The carriers
will no longer have the near dominance that they historically have enjoyed."